Table of Contents
August 2008 was quite eventful for Russia and China, as well as for their bilateral relations. Against all the odds (pro-Tibet protests and the devastating Sichuan earthquake in the second quarter), the twenty-ninth summer Olympic Games in Beijing opened and concluded with extravagant ceremonies and a record 51 gold medals for the host country. Shortly before the opening ceremony of the Beijing Olympics on 8 August, Georgia’s attacks against South Ossetia and Abkhazia—two separatist regions of Georgia—led to a massive military response from Russia, a five-day war and Russia’s recognition of the independence of the two disputed regions. Thus, the August guns and games brought the two strategic partners—China and Russia—back to the world stage, though through separate paths and with lasting geo-strategic implications for themselves and the rest of the world. One consequence of the Georgian–Russian war is that China’s ‘neutrality’ is widely seen as a crisis in China’s strategic relations with Russia.
For many in the West, China’s cautious neutrality is a departure from, if not a betrayal of, its strategic partnership with Russia. China’s ‘strategic ambiguity’ regarding the Georgian–Russian conflict has been the focus of the media and pundits (‘China cannot back Russia in Georgia crisis: analysts’, AFP, 28 August 2008, <http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5guAa5jCMIWCy-SMYWZY4- 0451p5w>; Pronina and Alison 2008; Manthorpe 2008). Many observers tend to highlight the differences and conflicts of interest between China and Russia. China’s move is seen as an effort to maximise its interests while Russia is going through difficult times with the West. China’s own problem with Taiwan is perhaps one major reason why China cannot publicly support Russia on the South Ossetian issue (Hua 2008b). Most Central Asian states are also said to have reservations about Russia’s policy due to the large number of ethnic Russians living in this ‘near abroad’ area and their cautious neutrality also shows the growing influence of China in this sphere of traditional Russian influence. These apparent differences between Russia and its Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) partners are indications, accordingly, of the fragility of this regional security group, and of the fact that many of its members simply dream different dreams while sleeping in the same ‘bed’ as Moscow (Hua 2008a). Georgia also lost no time thanking China for not taking sides in its most recent conflict with Russia (Hua 2008c).
This interpretation of reactions to the war in Georgia misreads the current state of the Sino–Russian relationship and lacks adequate understanding of its depth, breadth and complexity. As a result, the Western perception of the Beijing–Moscow relationship has swung from one of ‘threat’ against the West before the South Ossetian crisis, to the current premature celebration of the relationship’s demise. Neither view is correct: both focus on the superficial and discount more substantive considerations.
This misperception of the Sino–Russian relationship took shape when the world was overwhelmed by dynamics and disorder in the second half of 2008. In East Asia, Pyongyang was finally on a path to de-nuclearisation after repeated threats to reverse this process; Japanese politics continued to fluctuate as Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda was replaced by Taro Aso, who was far more hawkish than his predecessor on Japan’s militarist past; and, coming on top of the successful Beijing Olympics, a ‘taikonaut’ from the People’s Republic of China conducted that country’s first space walk. Beyond East Asia and in addition to the US–Russian confrontation over South Ossetia, America’s war on terror remained open-ended (now being conducted in the three separate theatres of Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan) six years after the Bush Doctrine of pre-emption made its debut. Moreover, the financial tsunami—originating in the United States—left no nation untouched and heightened the sense of a world far less secure than before. As Americans voted to put the first black president in the White House, the world’s strongest power was losing influence among its friends and foes.
The nature and dynamics of the Moscow–Beijing strategic partnership, therefore, need to be comprehended within the broader context of a rapidly changing region and world. Specifically, this chapter will examine the Sino–Russian relationship by asking the following questions: what have been the patterns and trajectory of the Sino–Russian relationship since the normalisation of relations 20 years ago (in 1989)? How do the features of the current bilateral relationship compare with those in earlier periods? What are the prospects for Russian–Sino relations under Russian President, Dmitry Medvedev, and his ‘copilot’, Vladimir Putin? What are the areas of bilateral relations where cooperation outweighs competition? How will this relationship adapt to the ever-changing domestic and international environment? One could go on to ask how ‘strategic’ the current ‘strategic partnership’ really is. How and why did China opt for a posture of ‘strategic ambiguity’ over the conflict between Russia and the West? At the operational level, how will Moscow and Beijing continue and improve this ‘best ever’ relationship?
For this purpose, among others, this study begins with an overview of bilateral relations in the past 30 years. This is followed by an analysis of the nature of the two countries’ ‘strategic partnership’. With this in mind, recent developments in their bilateral ties will be examined, including Medvedev’s May 2008 visit to Beijing, China–Russia interactions during and after the recent Russian–Georgian war, and their implications for relations between Russia and China.