Medvedev’s ‘Westpolitik’ through Beijing

Medvedev’s visit occurred at a time when Moscow and Beijing were facing growing challenges from the West: for Russia, a new round of NATO expansion and missile defence; for China, mounting protectionism in the West and surging energy prices—not to mention Tibet and the Olympics.This led to the Joint Statement of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Russian Federation on Major International Issues, signed by the two heads of states. The 11-point declaration stressed common perceptions and preferences between Moscow and Beijing, ranging from the crucial role of the United Nations in peace, development, security and counter-terrorism to the need for a more equal, fair and multipolar world, concerns about missile defence and space weaponisation, cooperation on environmental protection and energy, negotiations and dialogue for regional issues such as the North Korean nuclear crisis, Iran, Sudan, and so on (‘Full text of joint statement of the PRC and the Russian Federation on major international issues’, People’s Daily, 23 May 2008, <http:// politics.people.com.cn/GB/1026/7290647.html>).

At the policy level, Beijing and Moscow have worked closely in creating a soft landing for regional crises such as North Korea and Iran; they co-sponsored a proposal in Geneva in February 2008 for an international treaty to ban weapon deployment in outer space; extended their eighth round of foreign ministerial meetings with India to a four-party dialogue including Brazil in May 2008; and vetoed a British-sponsored UN Security Council bill to apply sanctions against Zimbabwe in July 2008 (‘China and Russia vetoed UNSC draft to sanction Zimbabwe, US and UK expressed disbelief’, Jiefang Net, 12 July 2008, cited from <www.6park.com/news/messages/87718.html>).

Not everything was synchronised between Moscow and Beijing. By the end of Putin’s presidency, Russia’s reaction to NATO expansion and missile defence in Europe led to a series of confrontational responses from Russia, including the resumption of Russia’s strategic bombers’ routine patrols and military posturing in several ‘near abroad’ areas. Beijing shares Russia’s concerns but might not want to see further deepening of the Russia–West breach to the point that it has to take sides (Hongfeng 2008). For the same reason, Beijing seems happy to see the SCO remain as it is—that is, a community of nations working for regional stability and economic development rather than an explicit counterforce to NATO or the United States. Such a view also seems to be the consensus of most, if not all, of the other members and observers of the SCO. Short of a steep deterioration in the regional security situation, SCO members need to maintain working relations with Washington and the West, as much as they need each other. This could explain why the SCO’s annual foreign ministerial meeting on 25 July in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, continued to uphold a moratorium regarding Iran’s full SCO membership (‘Shanghai ministerial session ends in Tajikistan’, Asia-Plus [Online], 25 July 2008).

It appears that the more Russia wants to be identified with the West, the less likely it is that this will happen. Yeltsin and Putin tried to plant Russia fully inside Western civilisation, only to be dismayed by persistent Western policies ranging from NATO expansion and its stance on Kosovo, to missile defence and the ‘colour revolutions’. At the end of their presidencies, both resorted to some high-profile strategic posturing, although Yeltsin’s nuclear roar was somewhat hollow.

Medvedev’s China trip should perhaps be understood in light of Russia’s unrequited affection for the West. Medvedev was also widely believed to be ‘liberal’ and ‘pro-West’ before his presidency. This perception of Medvedev contrasted sharply with the image of Putin, who rose through the ranks of the KGB before the collapse of the Soviet Union. One of the goals of Medvedev’s China ‘detour’ was, therefore, to promote Russia’s ‘Westpolitik’. Indeed, 10 days after his visit to China, Medvedev was in Berlin unveiling his grand blueprint for a Euro–Atlantic community stretching from Vancouver to Vladivostok. Within this community, Russia and Europe would share common roots, history, values and thinking (Medvedev 2008). A month later, the Russian President again tossed around the same ‘Medvedev doctrine’ at the G8 summit in Japan. On the same day, however, the United States and the Czech Republic signed a missile defence agreement—to the dismay of Moscow (Gearan 2008). As a result of the five-day war over South Ossetia, the new Russian President did not even have a honeymoon period with the West—unlike his predecessor, Putin, in whose eyes US President, George W. Bush, saw the soul of the former KGB colonel.