Ross Garnaut

Ross Garnaut is a Distinguished Professor at the Crawford School of Economics & Government, Australian National University College of Asia & the Pacific. Ross Garnaut’s research interests include China’s economic reforms and internationalisation; Asia-Pacific economies’ development and international economic relations; Australia’s economic relations with the Asia-Pacific region; domestic economic adjustment to Asia-Pacific economic development.

China's New Sources of Economic Growth: Vol. 2 (Chinese version) »

人力资本、创新和技术变迁

Edited by: 宋 立刚, Ross Garnaut, 蔡 昉, Lauren Johnston
Publication date: March 2019
本书试图对人力资本、创新和技术变迀在转型经济中的作用做深层次分析,并讨 论中国的经历在何种方式上为中国自身和其他国家提供了重要的经验教训。我们生活 在一个现代技术越来越多地影响着我们方方面面生活的全新时代。虽然中国正付出极 大努力通过增加人力资本和技术创新来完成经济结构调整和转型,但仍面临巨大的挑 战。为此,本书深入研究了人力资本、创新和技术变迀在影响中国经济增长模式和中 国经济总体发展格局中的作用,考察了宏观经济最新发展情况以及教育和创新发展的 趋势,还研究了结构变化是如何为中国获得一系列更先进增长驱动力做好准备的。 Chinese print version of this book is available from Social Science and Academic Press

China’s 40 Years of Reform and Development: 1978–2018 »

Edited by: Ross Garnaut, Ligang Song, Cai Fang
Publication date: July 2018
The year 2018 marks 40 years of reform and development in China (1978–2018). This commemorative book assembles some of the world’s most prominent scholars on the Chinese economy to reflect on what has been achieved as a result of the economic reform programs, and to draw out the key lessons that have been learned by the model of growth and development in China over the preceding four decades. This book explores what has happened in the transformation of the Chinese economy in the past 40 years for China itself, as well as for the rest of the world, and discusses the implications of what will happen next in the context of China’s new reform agenda. Focusing on the long-term development strategy amid various old and new challenges that face the economy, this book sets the scene for what the world can expect in China’s fifth decade of reform and development. A key feature of this book is its comprehensive coverage of the key issues involved in China’s economic reform and development. Included are discussions of China’s 40 years of reform and development in a global perspective; the political economy of economic transformation; the progress of marketisation and changes in market-compatible institutions; the reform program for state-owned enterprises; the financial sector and fiscal system reform, and its foreign exchange system reform; the progress and challenges in economic rebalancing; and the continuing process of China’s global integration. This book further documents and analyses the development experiences including China’s large scale of migration and urbanisation, the demographic structural changes, the private sector development, income distribution, land reform and regional development, agricultural development, and energy and climate change policies.

China's New Sources of Economic Growth: Vol. 1 (Chinese version) »

改革、资源能源与气候变化

Edited by: 宋 立刚, Ross Garnaut, 蔡 昉, Lauren Johnston
Publication date: February 2018
本书针对近年来中国经济增速的下滑,从供给侧角度出发,探讨中国如何启动经 济增长的新源泉,论证了通过改革进一步提高劳动生产率的重要性。全书分为两个部 分,第一部分为“改革与宏观经济发展”,主要内容包括宏观经济的展望、新经济增 长模式、新型城镇化、互联网金融的发展、供给侧结构性改革、中国的全球投资、农 民工的储蓄与消费行为、证券市场的泡沫检验、企业层面的杠杆率与去杠杆进程等;第二部分为“资源、能源、环境与气候变化”,主要内容包括中国低碳城市发展、能 源政策的变化、钢铁产业重组、工业用水和能耗趋势、水资源和森林资源的保护、电 力行业与环境保护的关系以及中国气候环境战略面临的挑战等。 Chinese print version of this book is available from Social Science and Academic Press

China's New Sources of Economic Growth: Vol. 2 »

Human Capital, Innovation and Technological Change

Edited by: Ligang Song, Ross Garnaut, Cai Fang, Lauren Johnston
Publication date: July 2017
China’s efforts in searching for new sources of growth are increasingly pressing given the persistence of the growth slowdown in recent years. This year’s book elucidates key present macroeconomic challenges facing China’s economy in 2017, and the impacts and readiness of human capital, innovation and technological change in affecting the development of China’s economy. The book explores the development of human capital as the foundations of China’s push into more advanced growth frontiers. It also explores the progress of productivity improvement in becoming the primary mechanism by which China can sustain economic growth, and explains the importance of China’s human capital investments to success on this front. The book demonstrates that technical change is a major contributor to productivity growth; and that invention and innovation are increasingly driving technical change but so far lumpily across regions, sectors and invention motivations. Included are chapters providing an update on reform and macroeconomic development, educational inequality, the role of intangibles in determining China’s economic growth, and China’s progress in transitioning towards being an innovative country. The book also covers the regional dimension of innovation and technological progress by sector: in agricultural productivity, renewable energy and financial markets. Chapters on trade, investment, regional cooperation and foreign aid explore further the mechanisms through which technological change and innovative activities are emerging locally and internationally.

China's Domestic Transformation in a Global Context (Chinese version) »

全球背景下的中国经济转型

Edited by: 宋 立刚, Ross Garnaut, 蔡 昉, Lauren Johnston
Publication date: February 2017
中国经济正经历着自改革开放以来最持久深入的增长转型期。本书 主题是“中国经济转型”,主要关注以下问题:一是全球经济增长的背景; 二是中国的货币政策与外汇政策改革及资本项目开放;三是中国的能源 与电力改革与政策调整;四是中国的对外投资以及贸易政策的实施。在“新 常态”的增长速度下,中国的经济发展是否能够如预期为中国走上世界 生产力前沿奠定基础?在结构调整和低速增长并存的情况下,未来经济 发展面临什么新的问题?通过本书的分析阐释,也许能够为读者找到解 答这些问题的线索。 Chinese print version of this book is available from Social Science and Academic Press

China's New Sources of Economic Growth: Vol. 1 »

Reform, Resources and Climate Change

Edited by: Ligang Song, Ross Garnaut, Cai Fang, Lauren Johnston
Publication date: July 2016
China’s change to a new model of growth, now called the ‘new normal’, was always going to be hard. Events over the past year show how hard it is. The attempts to moderate the extremes of high investment and low consumption, the correction of overcapacity in the heavy industries that were the mainstays of the old model of growth, the hauling in of the immense debt hangover from the fiscal and monetary expansion that pulled China out of the Great Crash of 2008 would all have been hard at any time. They are harder when changes in economic policy and structure coincide with stagnation in global trade and rising protectionist sentiment in developed countries, extraordinarily rapid demographic change and recognition of the urgency of easing the environmental damage from the old model. China’s economy has slowed and there are worries that the authorities will not be able to contain the slowdown within preferred limits. This year’s Update explores the challenge of the slowdown in growth and the change in economic structure. Leading experts on China’s economy and environment review change within China’s new model of growth, and its interaction with ageing, environmental pressure, new patterns of urbanisation, and debt problems at different levels of government. It illuminates some new developments in China’s economy, including the transformational potential of internet banking, and the dynamics of financial market instability. China’s economic development since 1978 is full of exciting change, and this year’s China Update is again the way to know it as it is happening

China's Domestic Transformation in a Global Context »

Edited by: Ligang Song, Ross Garnaut, Cai Fang, Lauren Johnston
Publication date: July 2015
The phrase ‘New Normal’ captures the ongoing shift in the pattern and drivers of China’s economic growth. China’s new growth rate is both slower and imposing difficult structural change. These new economic conditions are challenging yet offer opportunities for China and its economic partners. Reforms must be deepened but also make growth more inclusive and environmentally sustainable, over this decade and beyond. This year’s Update offers both global context and domestic insight into this challenging new phase of China’s domestic economic transformation. How are policymakers elevating migrant workers concurrent with increasing consumption? Is China’s government spending enough on education and R&D to ensure it can achieve its aspirations to ascend the global manufacturing value chain and avoid the middle-income trap? Are energy market reforms reducing or increasing the price of gas and electricity in China? What are the consequences of China’s financial reforms and expanding Renminbi trading for foreign banks? What does China’s new growth model mean for the international resources economy and for Africa? Do SOEs face market conditions and are they dominating China’s fast-rising outbound investment? What is China’s strategy for navigating fragmented international trade policy negotiations?

Deepening Reform for China's Long-term Growth and Development »

Edited by: Ross Garnaut, Cai Fang, Ligang Song
Publication date: July 2014
The Chinese economy has entered a new phase of development in which sources of growth are not so much dependent upon pure increases in labour, investment and credit expansion, but from productivity improvement, structural changes, technological progress and the benefits from improvement of the social security and welfare improvement. When market functions are fully established to become a main channel for allocating resources, the entrepreneurship will flourish engaging in more innovative activities, workers will move more freely and have more incentives to improve their skills, firms will become more productive through market entry and exit, the economic structure will become more balanced because of the improved resource allocation, and in the end, growth will become more spontaneous and sustainable. In this sense, reforms could deliver ‘dividend’ by raising China’s potential economic growth rates. For China to confront all the challenges it faces at present, the reforms undertaken now have to be deep, comprehensive and far-reaching in order to succeed in paving the way for China to complete the task of transformation in the long-term. There is no better alternative than deepening the market-oriented reform in advancing the course of China’s modernisation for future development and prosperity and lifting China to the status of a developed economy in the next two decades. The recent China update books have covered the topic of reform from different angles and this new book is another attempt to address this important issue.

China: A New Model for Growth and Development »

Edited by: Ross Garnaut, Cai Fang, Ligang Song
Publication date: July 2013
The Chinese economy is undergoing profound change in policy and structure. The change is necessary to increase the value of growth to the Chinese community, and to sustain growth into the future. The changes are so comprehensive and profound that they represent a new model of Chinese economic growth. This book describes the replacement of an old uninhibited investment expansion model of growth, by transition to modern economic growth and provides insights into recent changes and where they are likely to lead. These include requirements for building the new institutions including its public finances for future growth, adjustments in its savings, industry and agriculture, changes in its demographic structure, business environment, and pattern of rural-urban migration, prospects for ‘green growth’, its energy policy trilemma and the climate change mitigation strategy, and changes for China’s interaction with the international economy through its overseas investment and trade in high tech products. China’s adoption of a new model of economic growth is of immense importance to people in China and everywhere. This book is an early attempt to take a close look at many of the features of the new model.

China: A New Model for Growth and Development (Chinese version) »

中国长期增长与发展的新战略: 责任与启示

Authored by: Ross Garnaut, 蔡 昉 宋立刚
Publication date: July 2013
中国经济正经历着政策和结构方面的深刻变革. 这种变革对于提高中国 社会的增长绩效、 保持未来中国经济的发展潜力都很有必要. 成功的经济发展改变了中国传统的增长模式, 也给经济发展带来了压力, 而这种压力正是变革的内驱力之一. 近年来, 劳动力短缺及真实工资迅速上涨给中国经济的传统模式带来了巨大挑战, 使得资源和收入分配、自然环境、经济增长率、储蓄率、 投资率与国际资本流动等都有所变化. 原有的增长模式在过去取得了巨大的成功, 也引发了上文所述的种种变化, 而国家政策层面上的改革亦会改善现状, 使中国的收人分配体系更加公平, 国内环境和国际环境更加有利于中国经济的发展. Chinese version of this book is available from this Social Science and Academic Press.

China 2002 »

WTO entry and world recession

Publication date: December 2012
In 2002 China enters the WTO. Long awaited by the world’s trading economies, it now comes in a year of global recession. What effect will China’s entry into the WTO have at a difficult time? The rapid expansion of China’s trade has required large adjustment in its trading partners, and the expansion and adjustment will accelerate with WTO entry. The internal adjustment pressures in China from WTO entry are also immense. Recently dubbed Australia’s Ambassador to the region by Rowan Callick of the Financial Review, Ross Garnaut was Australia’s ambassador to China through an earlier exciting period when China took its first major steps towards opening to international trade and investment. He was instrumental in the development of China’s thinking about the WTO. Ross Garnaut is Chairman of the China Economy and Business Program at The Australian National University. Australian members of the Program and their associates gather each year for the China Update. Ligang Song is leading authority on the internationalisation of the Chinese economy and on the development of the private sector in China. He has worked at Peking University and People’s University in Beijing and at the International University in Tokyo. This work, originally published by Asia Pacific Press, is reproduced here in the interests of maintaining open access to high-quality academic works no longer in print.

China: New Engine of World Growth »

Publication date: December 2012
Twenty-five years of reform have transformed China from a centrally planned and closed system to a predominantly market-driven and open economy. As a consequence, China is emerging as the new powerhouse for the world economy. China: new engine for world growth discusses the impact and significance of this transformation. It points out risks to the growth process and unfinished tasks of reform. It presents conclusions from recent research on growth, trade and investment, the financial sector, income and regional disparities, industrial location and private sector development. This work, originally published by Asia Pacific Press, is reproduced here in the interests of maintaining open access to high-quality academic works no longer in print.

China: Twenty Years of Economic Reform »

Publication date: December 2012
China: Twenty Years of Reform outlines the experiences of China over the past two decades.  It highlights the processes of reform, successes achieved, and problems faced during the economic transition. “China, and its relations with the international community, have been transformed. China’s economy has expanded five times, and its foreign trade by twelve. It has greatly increased consumption levels of what had been about half of the world’s people in poverty.” - Ross Garnaut “Tremendous progress has been made over the past twenty years, but much more needs to be done in setting up a more open, efficient and transparent trade system, in line with the requirements of the WTO.” - Ligang Song “Radical reform is neither in China’s tradition, nor is it an easy task. Given the difficulties of the reform task and the structure of the political economy, it will probably take a few more years for China to accomplish SOE reform and reforms in other areas.” - Yiping Huang “The most remarkable aspect of China’s agricultural reform was it’s “spillover” effect. Non-agricultural activities in rural China sprang up immediately after the reforms began—the gross output value of TVEs grew at 24 per cent per annum from 1978 to 1995 and employment grew at 9 per cent per annum.” - Yongzheng Yang  This work, originally published by Asia Pacific Press, is reproduced here in the interests of maintaining open access to high-quality academic works no longer in print.

Private Enterprise in China »

Authored by: Ross Garnaut, Ligang Song, Yang Yao, Xiaolu Wang
Publication date: December 2012
The Chinese economy is currently undergoing a profound institutional transformation—a quiet revolution. In a regulated environment geared to the requirements of state-owned enterprises, the successs of the private sector as the main focus for economic growth is remarkable. State-owned enterprises are currently being restructured based on market conditions in which private firms are now permitted to play an important role. Fascinated by the implications of this reform within the Chinese economy, the Asia-Pacific School of Economics and Management of The Australian National University, in conjunction with the China Center for Economic Research of Peking University research team, conducted a large sample survey. Four study sites were chosen: Beijing, Chengdu, Shunde and Wenzhou. Leading economists analyse the nature and dynamics of private sector reform within the Chinese economy and make recommendations for policy which support opportunities for growth and investment. This work, originally published by Asia Pacific Press, is reproduced here in the interests of maintaining open access to high-quality academic works no longer in print.

China: The Next Twenty Years of Reform and Development (Chinese version) »

中国:未来二十年的改革与发展

Publication date: June 2011
过去30年,中国在经济改革和对外开放方面取得了巨大成就,从而成为世界上举足轻重的一个经济体。不过,在改革与发展的进程中,仍然存在许多没有解决的问题,也会面临诸多新的挑战。本书旨在关注以下问题:中国如何深化要素市场等颇具争议的领域的改革;如何改革汇率体制和医疗卫生体系,同时,这些改革需要有强有力且高效的配套政策措施,中国才可能应对一系列挑战。这些挑战包括:如何应对劳动力无限供给时代的结束;如何在减少全球贸易失衡中担当建设性的角色;如何提高企业的创新能力;如何应归史无前例的移民、城市化和社会不平等问题;以及如何在低碳发展成为唯一路径的条件下,解决能源和金属使用量增长带来的排放问题。 下载前请阅读下载须知 免费下载文件章节 Chinese print version of this book is available from Social Science and Academic Press

China: The Next Twenty Years of Reform and Development »

Publication date: July 2010
China has made some remarkable achievements during the first three decades of  economic reform and opening up, rising to become one of the world’s most dynamic and globally-integrated market economies. Yet there remains much unfinished business on the reform and development agenda, coupled with newly emerging challenges. China: The Next Twenty Years of Reform and Development highlights how the deepening of reforms in critical areas such as domestic factor markets, the exchange rate regime and the health system, combined with the strengthening of channels for effective policy implementation, will enable China to cope with the challenges that lie ahead. These include responding to the pending exhaustion of the unlimited supply of labour; playing a constructive role in reducing global trade imbalances; enhancing firms’ ability to innovate; coping with migration, urbanisation and rising inequalities on scales unknown in world history; and dealing with rising energy and metal demand in an era in which low-carbon growth has become a necessity rather than a choice. Chinese translation

China's New Place in a World in Crisis (Chinese version) »

全球金融危机下的中国:经济、地缘政治和环境的视角

Edited by: Ross Garnaut, Ligang Song, Wing Thye Woo
Publication date: June 2010
2008年的金融危机,使全球状况和中国的世界地位都发生了改变。这场危机加速了中国作为一个有影响力的大国的崛起。本书将对下列问题进行深入探讨:此次全球危机会对中国的增长前景长造成怎样的影响?这场危机的演化和中国的应对举措,会对中国的工业化、城市化进程以及国有企业改革等问题施加何种影响?国际社会将如何应对迅速出现的国际新秩序?中国和其他主要发展中国家将在国际社会中担当怎样的新角色?中国和世界能否打破经济增长和破坏环境的宿命,尤其是如 何解决气候变化问题? Chinese print version of this book is available from Social Science and Academic Press

China's New Place in a World in Crisis »

Economic, Geopolitical and Environmental Dimensions

Edited by: Ross Garnaut, Ligang Song, Wing Thye Woo
Publication date: July 2009
The world and China’s place in it have been transformed over the past year. The pressures for change have come from the most severe global financial crisis ever. The crisis has accelerated China’s emergence as a great power. But China and its global partners have yet to think or work through the consequences of its new position for the governance of world affairs. China’s New Place in a World in Crisis discusses and provides in-depth analysis of the following questions. How have China’s growth prospects been affected by the global crisis? How will the crisis and China’s response to it impact China’s major domestic issues, such as industrialisation, urbanisation and the reform of the state-owned sector of the economy? How will the crisis and the international community’s response to it affect the rapidly emerging new international order? What will be China’s, and other major developing countries’, new role? Can China and the world find a way of breaking the nexus between economic growth and environmental sustainability — especially on the issue of climate change?

China: Linking Markets for Growth »

Publication date: August 2007
China’s prosperity is at the core of the emerging Platinum Age of global economic growth. Rapid economic growth has been underpinned by expansion in its domestic markets, and the integration of domestic and international markets in goods, services, capital, labour and foreign exchange. Global commodity prices have reached historic highs, while China’s capital outflows have helped to hold down interest rates worldwide. Linking markets, both domestic and international, has been key to China’s success. In sustaining its strong economic growth, China has become one of the world’s most voracious consumers of energy. The challenge now facing the government and people of China is in achieving cooperation with the international community to avert the costs–both economic and environmental–of accelerating energy consumption. China–Linking Markets for Growth gathers together leading scholars on China’s economic success and its effect on the world economy into the next few decades.

The Turning Point in China's Economic Development »

Publication date: August 2006
The profound economic transformation in China is not a linear process. It is subject to fundamental shifts in its underlying structure. One of those structural transformations will be a shift from unlimited to limited supplies of labour in China’s economic development. Is China approaching this turning point? What are the dynamic forces in driving China moving towards this turning point? What are the economic and policy implications of this turning point in China’s economic transformation and development? The book discusses these important issues by focusing on China’s long-term pattern of growth and employment, demographic shifts and rural-urban migration, its agricultural trade and local elections, China’s banking sector reform and its fiscal sustainability, China’s interaction with the international economy and global imbalances, its industrialisation and its resource and energy demand, was well as its environmental concerns. Contributions to this volume are made by leading analysts from China, the United States and Australia.

The China Boom and its Discontents »

Publication date: October 2005
China is shaping the global economy as never before. An insatiable demand for commodities, energy resources and capital, and deepening integration to the world economy has won China acclaim. Yet 25 years of rapid industrial development, far-reaching economic reforms and increasing international competition have also created an array of challenging domestic policy demands. The China Boom and its Discontents discusses the financial and social challenges that have emerged in the wake of rapid economic growth. Recent research on demographic trends, labour movements, financial development, social security, urbanisation and trade agreements highlight the unfinished progress of reforms in China.