12. ‘Getting Out from Under’: Leadership, Conflict Resolution and Tokelau Migration

In the past three decades, Niue and to a lesser extent the Cook Islands, have figured prominently in the public discourse in Tokelau, in the Tokelau communities overseas, and in administrative circles, about choosing a viable political way for Tokelau. The threat constituted by the example of Niue—as it is represented in discourse in and about Tokelau—is that of a self-governing island state, most of whose able-bodied population are employed in the public service. The negative consequences of this situation are apparent: those who cannot get employment in the public sector leave and as a consequence, the villages and community life lose coherence, life and vibrancy. In addition, this kind of emigration causes village work and development projects to fail for lack of labour. (Such loss of manpower may occur independently, of course, as a result of forces separate from the question of a choice of political institutions; see Hooper, n.d.).^[1] In contrast with Niue, Tokelau is represented as a unique case, and a recurrent theme in this discourse is the continued vitality, and relatively constant population figures, of village life in the atolls.

The dominant theoretical perspectives on migration have undergone a transformation over the last three decades. The model of migration as a predominantly unidirectional flow of labour from a home country to a diaspora has been challenged by the emerging configurations represented by ‘transnationalism’. These configurations have in common a continuing flow of people, information and goods between two or more social spaces, and frequently crossing national borders (hence the term ‘trans-nationalism’). The emotional value of these social spaces, which Lilomaiava-Doctor (this volume) has labelled ‘homeland’ and ‘reach’, may differ. A common trait for such situations, at least as they are manifest in the Pacific region, is that the different social spaces are connected by enduring and reciprocal social relationships, through ties of kinship and other institutional connections.

In spite of the discourse on the continued vitality and relatively constant population figures of Tokelau villages referred to above, the most recent census for Tokelau (from 2006) show an admittedly small, but still significant population loss. At present, it is too early to say with any certainty whether the most recent population figures for the Tokelau atoll societies will be seen to constitute a definite trend of population decline or not. Comparative material from elsewhere in the Pacific (such as in this volume) suggests a development of continuous and multidirectional flows between different social spaces, therefore, some caution is required when interpreting the most recent population figures for Tokelau.

A useful place to start is to identify the social processes that underlie such figures. This is important, given the population size (see below for figures). The small population leads to a vulnerability in terms of ongoing viability, but also to a capacity for transnational mobilisation, when faced with events that have great potential social impact. As mentioned above, at the end of 2006, an increase was apparent in emigration from Tokelau. The emigrational pattern seems to have particularly affected the 30–50 age groups. Some people had also moved to Tokelau, but in smaller numbers. The latest Tokelau population census shows a decline of 20 per cent in comparison with the 2001 figure. In 1991, the population numbered 1,557 people; in 1996, it was 1,487 and in 2001, it was 1,449.

The total number of people living on the atolls has never been high: approximately 1,700 at most.^[2] What we do not know as yet, is how many people who actually move between the atolls and the outside world between the censuses. This work still remains to be done, and the population figures hide the degree to which the people counted on the atolls might not be the same. However, it is possible to carry out a preliminary exploration of the social dynamics of the most recent population decline; in particular, it might be of interest to ask whether the population situation in the atolls can be better understood from a transnational perspective. This following exploration is based on my own fieldwork observations.

Reasons for a recent increase in emigration include: easier access to the outside world afforded by the introduction of a fortnightly charter that runs between Tokelau and Apia in Samoa; an increase in salaries in Tokelau so that more people can afford to leave; a marked increase in serious health problems and a lower standard of education. Together, these are strong motivating forces for further migration. A headline in the New Zealand newspaper, The Dominion Post (of 14 November 2006), hints however that there may be more sinister motives and forces behind the most recent population decline. The headline reads in eye-catching tabloid language: ‘Sex and self-government blamed for population fall’. In this chapter, I present some thoughts on what I see as the social dynamics behind events that have resulted in such headlines and relate them to the transnational patterns of interaction between members of the various Tokelau communities in New Zealand and Tokelau.