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China: Regaining Growth Momentum after the Pandemic »
Edited by: Ligang Song, Yixiao Zhou
Publication date: 2024
The slower growth of the Chinese economy in the aftermath of the pandemic has prompted the Chinese Government to adopt measures to boost domestic consumption and deepen structural reform, with the effectiveness of such policies beginning to be felt. However, China still faces challenges that will affect its growth dynamics down the track. These include the slowdown of its real estate sector, the complex internal and external environments for macroeconomic policy, the high level of income inequality, weak growth in investment by the private sector, negative population growth, high levels of debt, deglobalisation, weakness in the financial sector and equity markets, the inadequacy of its fiscal system and the imperative to decarbonise the economy. China must confront these challenges to maintain growth momentum and achieve higher levels of income and living standards.
The theme of the 2024 China Update book is China: Regaining Growth Momentum after the Pandemic. It discusses some of the challenges and policy issues that are being watched with keen interest by decision-makers and markets alike, including: What are the obstacles to economic growth in the aftermath of the pandemic and how can these be overcome? What are the key challenges and opportunities for China to move to the next level of development against the backdrop of negative population growth? Is it time for a Tax-Sharing System Reform 2.0 to consolidate China’s fiscal position? What are the challenges facing China’s small and medium enterprises? How is China’s business environment faring, and what are the implications for investment? How does China’s urban housing affordability impact its low fertility rate? How will the trade conflict between China and the United States play out regarding semiconductors and other high-tech products? How does China–Africa bilateral agricultural trade impact on African rural transformation?
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East Asia Forum Quarterly: Volume 16, Number 3, 2024 »
Publication date: September 2024
ASEAN's rise as the cornerstone of regional diplomacy and security in the 1990s may have seemed improbable, but it was crucial. Today, a shifting regional geopolitical landscape challenges ASEAN’s relevance. Great power competition and waning global political commitment to multilateral arrangements threaten its role as East Asia’s 'steering committee'. This edition of East Asia Forum Quarterly explores how ASEAN can maintain its centrality, calling for proactive leadership and stronger regional cooperation.
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After Neoliberalism »
Authored by: John Quiggin
Publication date: July 2024
Since the early 1980s, Australian economic policy has been dominated by the ideology of neoliberalism (also known as ‘economic rationalism’), including policies of privatisation, financial deregulation and micro-economic reform. Throughout this period, John Quiggin has presented critical assessments of neoliberal policies and the claims about productivity growth made in support of those policies.
The credibility of neoliberalism was fatally wounded by the Global Financial Crisis and its aftermath. Nevertheless, market ideology has lumbered on in zombie form, for want of a clear alternative. It is only recently that we have begun to reverse the failed policies of privatisation and deregulation and to consider radical alternatives such as a shift to a four-day week.
This book provides a historical perspective in the form of a series of articles written from the mid-1980s to the present day. It concludes with some suggestions for the way forward, after neoliberalism.
‘John Quiggin is the intellectual equivalent of a dazzling fireworks display. I walk away from every encounter with a bright new insight, and this book is no exception. Agree or disagree, Professor Quiggin is a veritable trove of fresh insights. Spanning nearly four decades, this volume brings together some of Professor Quiggin’s most provocative contributions, driven by a deep commitment to equity. It will pique your curiosity and encourage you to work towards a better world.’
—Andrew Leigh, Parliamentarian and author of The Shortest History of Economics
East Asia Forum Quarterly: Volume 16, Number 2, 2024 »
Publication date: June 2024
Key in globalisation, supply chains connect producers to consumers across nations and specialisations. Recently, geopolitics, the COVID-19 pandemic and European conflicts have reshaped these networks. Supply chains are increasingly influenced by statecraft and protectionism, moving away from multilateral cooperation. This issue of East Asia Forum Quarterly explores the rapid transformation of supply chains, the paradox of digital innovation in trade and the consequences of economic isolationism.
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East Asia Forum Quarterly: Volume 16, Number 1, 2024 »
Publication date: April 2024
As India charts its post-colonial journey, its pursuit of great-power status intensifies. This issue of East Asia Forum Quarterly delves into India's regional and global positioning, exploring avenues to leverage its economic, demographic and geopolitical advantages. Key insights highlight India's subordinate role to China in the Asia-Pacific, the need for job creation in manufacturing, revamp education and seize opportunities in global manufacturing. As India heads to the polls, its future trajectory hinges on addressing these complexities.
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East Asia Forum Quarterly: Volume 15, Number 4, 2023 »
Publication date: November 2023
It’s back: the past decade has seen a remarkable resurgence of industrial policy in the developed world. Geopolitical fragmentation and resultant suspicions of international trade, the politically induced adoption of second-best industrial policies to address carbon emissions, and the use of manufacturing incentives sparked by fears of deindustrialisation and widening inequality risk tit-for-tat protectionism and further splintering of the global economy. This issue of East Asia Forum Quarterly examines what the new enthusiasm for industrial policy activism means for the global system and Asian economies: exploring its effects on the ability of emerging Asian economies’ to break into manufacturing in global value chains; investigating how measures aimed at encouraging domestic processing of raw materials affect the stability of policy environments and green industrialisation; detailing and comparing the experiences of major regional economies with policy developments in semiconductor and electric vehicle manufacturing and renewable energy; and appraising industrial policy’s effects on smaller economies and the rules-based trading system from a global perspective.
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East Asia Forum Quarterly: Volume 15, Number 3, 2023 »
Publication date: September 2023
As ASEAN and Japan celebrate the 50th anniversary of their official relationship, the challenge to redefine the goals and purpose of this relationship is now pressing. Great power rivalry, regional power relativities, and sweeping political and economic disruption have injected new dynamics and exposed serious vulnerabilities. With ASEAN member states and Japan each facing their own domestic challenges, the opportunity presents itself for a more 'equal' partnership that is able to 'co-create' a regional economy and society, from paternalistic origins. This issue of East Asia Forum Quarterly addresses these challenges for the ASEAN–Japan relationship and offers ideas, vision and initiatives that might guide its future: exploring the policy options for a relationship challenged by regional economic fragmentation; detailing the lessons available for policymakers beginning to act on sustainability and digital and green transformation; and examining the opportunities taken and thus far unrealised for the fashioning of new soft diplomacy and investment in intra-ASEAN infrastructure.
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East Asia Forum Quarterly: Volume 15, Number 2, 2023 »
Publication date: June 2023
Global trade stands at a crucial crossroads. The multilateral trading system that underpinned globalisation for three-quarters of a century is being pulled apart by big power politics and the way forward is fogged in mistrust. Global growth is projected to decline this year and remain anaemic. Inflation, the rising rivalry between the world’s two largest economies, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine weigh heavily on the global outlook. The European war underscores how quickly the trading ties between nations might be undone and weaponised. This issue of East Asia Forum Quarterly examines the impact of trade sanctions as they rip into the trading system well beyond the battlefield. It interrogates how far sanctions have succeeded in hobbling Russia’s war machine and questions their deterrent value outside of conflict or their universal application, explores how supply chains have reshuffled around the reach of regulators, and asks how nations are probing opportunities created by the conflict.
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Navigating Prosperity and Security in East Asia »
Publication date: May 2023
The world’s two largest economies, the United States and China, are locked in a trade war, complicating policy choices internationally. These choices are sharper for the countries of East and Southeast Asia than they are elsewhere, because the multilateral rules-based economic order on which East Asian economic integration and cooperation is built is under threat.
Economic policy has never been separate from security considerations. For decades, the national security risks inherent in economic exchange have been mitigated under a US-led system that allowed the strengthening of economic ties, including between China and the rest of the world. But economics and security are increasingly entangled in a way that is damaging to both, creating a dangerous trade-off. Now, as global uncertainties grow, the risks of international exchange—rather than its benefits—are beginning to dominate the calculus for some policymakers.
Against this backdrop, how can Southeast Asian countries and US allies in Asia balance their security interests and their economic interests? And how can these countries, individually and collectively, broaden their policy options and deepen economic integration? This volume investigates the domestic and international dimensions of these questions.
More Than Fiscal »
The Intergenerational Report, Sustainability and Public Policy in Australia
Publication date: May 2023
Every five years, the Australian treasurer is required to publish an intergenerational report (IGR), which examines the long-term sustainability of current government policies and seeks to determine how demographic, technological and other structural trends might affect the economy and the budget in coming decades. Despite these lofty objectives, the five IGRs produced from 2002 have received only muted applause. Critics say that they are too mechanical, too narrow and too subject to the views of the government of the day and that they don’t provide the intended wake-up call for public understanding of looming economic, social and environmental issues.
This analysis of the most recent IGR (2021) is based on a workshop hosted by the Academy of the Social Sciences in Australia. While finding that the 2021 IGR is an improvement on the previous report (2015), the authors identify several fiscal and broader policy issues that deserve greater attention, including Australia’s structural deficit, rising inequality and the impacts of climate change. They argue that the report fails to discuss the policies required to support greater resilience against future shocks, including the case for earlier budget repair. They propose that future IGRs be prepared with greater independence, cover all levels of government, have more transparent analysis and draw upon a wider ‘wellbeing’ approach to long-term sustainability.
This book aims to attract close attention from public officials and politicians and generate constructive debate in the community.