So how has Australian defence planning progressed over the last 40 years, indeed over the life of the SDSC? At the risk of incurring the wrath of professional historians, I have undertaken a quick analysis that samples Australian defence policy and capability (existing and planned) at 10-year snapshots in the years 1966, 1976, 1986, 1996 and 2006. Given the glacial pace at which the force structure evolves, this nonetheless gives a reasonable picture of how things have changed over the past four decades.
The results are set out below by way of a description of each of the years in chronological order in terms of strategic guidance, budget and operational demands. Then follows a discussion of how the capabilities of the ADF evolved over the same period.
In 1966, confrontation with Indonesia had ended, the conflict in Vietnam had commenced, and Australia’s military contributions to Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand continued. The Australian Army alone had 6000 personnel deployed operationally (although our commitment to Vietnam was only around 4000 troops, less than half the size it was to grow to in the coming years) and the RAAF had three squadrons deployed to Southeast Asia. Australia was in the midst of its first substantial post-Second World War military build up—so much so that we had to employ trade credits from the United States to soften the impact on our balance of payments of acquisition purchases.
Conscription was gaining traction and the ADF had a permanent strength of 66 774, having grown by 10 500 in a single year (including a net gain of 3000 personnel from volunteer enlistment)—notwithstanding that unemployment stood at just 2 per cent and significant numbers of casualties were occurring in Vietnam.
It was, of course, the height of ‘forward defence’; pre-Guam doctrine, and pre-east of Suez. While the defence of Australia, its territory and its interests were the primary goal of defence policy, as the 1966 Defence Report said: ‘We believe that this can most reliably and responsibly be done by assisting actively the defence efforts of our regional friends and allies.’
The budget stood just on the psychological milestone of A$1 billion (or just under A$8 billion today) representing fully 3.8 per cent of GDP.
A decade later saw a much changed world. The communists had taken control of Vietnam but showed no sign of causing trouble—the last domino had fallen flat, without striking its neighbour. Our regional friends had learnt how to get along with each other, and our allies had largely decamped from Southeast Asia and so had we. We found ourselves with responsibility for our own security in a surprisingly benign environment. Accordingly, the 1976 Defence White Paper, Australian Defence, set out the core principles of what we now call the ‘defence of Australia’ doctrine.
Investment in capital equipment had fallen back to close to pre-Vietnam levels representing less than half the peak of nine years earlier, yet Army had just commenced delivery of 102 new Leopard tanks that had been ordered by the Whitlam Government two years earlier.
Conscription had ended, but there were still 68 774 people in the ADF. The defence budget stood at A$2 billion (or just under A$9 billion today) and amounted to 2.3 per cent of GDP.
In 1986 the Dibb Review took the ‘defence of Australia’ doctrine to its analytic peak, and set the framework for defence priorities for the years that followed. As had been the case for the previous decade, Australia had no major military deployments, and the ADF had settled into a comfortable peacetime routine.
Defence investment had recovered and the force was being re-equipped, including through the purchase of the F/A-18 Hornet fighter. In fact, 1986 saw investment reach a post Second World War high of almost A$5 billion per annum in today’s terms—a level only just now being approached again.
Consistent with high investment levels, Defence spending had grown to close to A$7 billion (or around A$12 billion in today’s terms—a level that was roughly sustained for the next decade). The defence vote accounted for 2.5 per cent of GDP. Personnel numbers had also grown from the decade earlier to 70 048, yet this was below the post-Vietnam War peak of 73 000 reached in 1982.
By 1996 the Cold War was securely in the past and the ADF was largely at home, although it had made a limited (largely naval) contribution to the 1990–91 Persian Gulf War and also provided a modest contribution to relatively benign peacekeeping missions to Somalia, Rwanda and Cambodia. Strategic guidance was in the process of softening the strictures of the ‘defence of Australia’ doctrine although, from a force structuring perspective, the Australian Army remained tethered to the continent. The year 1996 was also the eve of the Sandline crisis in PNG that gave Australia a taste of how surprisingly unstable our ‘arc of instability’ could be.
Defence spending stood at A$10 billion, or about where it was a decade earlier in real terms, although it had fallen to only 1.8 per cent of GDP. The absence of spending growth had been made up for, in part at least, by progressive efficiency measures (mainly outsourcing) and cuts to the size of the ADF as a result of the 1991 Force Structure Review.
Investment continued at around 75 per cent of the peak reached a decade earlier, but there were looming pressures with a wave of block-obsolescence about to hit. Along with dwindling resources for logistics support, this forced a second wave of efficiency measures the following year under the Defence Reform Program.
The combination of cuts to the force and outsourcing had driven personnel numbers down to 55 574, still well above pre-Vietnam War levels and indeed more so once the impact of outsourcing was taken into account.
A decade later and the wheel seemed to have turned full cycle. In 2006, the ADF was deployed in multiple theatres overseas, a concerted effort was being made to grow the number of personnel in the force, defence spending was on the increase—at 3 per cent per annum—and there were big plans in place to replace (and in some ways expand) the equipment of the ADF. Defence spending today sits at almost A$20 billion per annum or just under 2 per cent of GDP. Nonetheless, it would be wrong to draw too close a comparison between 2006 and 40 years ago. For one thing, Howard’s development of the ADF and his deployment of troops overseas, pales in comparison with Menzies’ massive military build up and the very significant loss of live suffered in successive Southeast Asian campaigns.
Similarly, it would be wrong to depict the emerging strategy of the Australian Government as simply a variant of ‘forward defence’—although there is certainly some sense of that in the echoing rhetoric of 1966 and 2006 with regard to Vietnam and Iraq. Rather, John Howard’s strategy (to the extent that it is clear) appears to be more a case of an expanded the ‘defence of Australia’ doctrine that embraces our immediate region more than before, while doing what is perceived as necessary to bolster the US alliance in the face of greater demand from our principal ally.