The Organization of American States, whose origin dates back to the 1890s, had, until recently, seemed rather firmly under the thumb of the United States. But forces on the left, which in the 1990s seemed to have been defeated, later regrouped and began to reassert themselves. The US-favoured candidate for the post of Secretary General of the organisation was defeated by the candidate favoured by Venezuela’s President Hugo Chávez, a dedicated enemy of Washington, and a friend of Cuba’s Fidel Castro. Evo Morales in Bolivia may prove an even more significant figure, since he represents the indigenous Indian population of the area. Morales has already described himself as ‘Washington’s worst nightmare’ and has presented an agenda of social and economic demands that seem to justify that claim.

Even the two most important sovereignties of the area, Mexico and Brazil (both potential great powers), are by no means certain future friends of the United States. Mexico’s President Vicente Fox, who initially was greeted by George W. Bush as his closest ‘amigo’, proved a disappointment to the United States during his six years in office and we are yet to see how Felipe Calderón will fare. Mexicans are no better off than when he was inaugurated, and still equally inclined to vote with their feet for life in the north. Brazil’s political future is also ambiguous. The present incumbent, Lula da Silva, is a Social Democrat of sorts, but he may have difficulty in holding that line against those politically further to the left. The President of Chile, Michelle Bachelet, is the daughter of one of Salvador Allende’s ministers, who was tortured during the Augusto Pinochet years, subsequently dying from a heart attack. Things have dramatically changed there.

Fidel Castro, having now survived almost 50 years of US efforts to dispose of him, may be having the last laugh, as the political and social forces he represented are reinforced in most of the region. Bush’s critics can reasonably claim that the US President’s obsessive concentration on the Middle East has induced a dangerous neglect of his hemispheric neighbourhood. But there is more to it than that. Washington’s assertive unilateralism in the period 2001–2004 was disliked as much there as in other parts of the world. Somewhat paradoxically, Bush’s rhetorical concentration on the new, virtuous US pursuit of democracy and human rights for all has actually strengthened China’s diplomatic hand. The world still has governments furious about being harassed on such matters, and some have resources of great interest to China. Places like Burma, Sudan, Uzbekistan, and North Korea are ‘off limits’ these days for Western diplomats and trade or oil ministers wanting to pursue deals and friendships, but not for the Chinese Foreign Minister and his aides.