To sum up the prospects as I see them, towards the 2020s, there will be six demographic and economic giants in the world (the United States, the European Union, China, India, Russia and Japan) and six other very substantial powers (Pakistan, Indonesia, Mexico, Brazil, Nigeria and Iran); that is, 12 main players to be considered. The centre-stage of world politics will be relatively crowded. One could say, in shorthand, four super-powers and eight great powers. At least eight governments, possibly 10, will have nuclear weapons at their disposal. By mid-century, according to UN demographers, there will be 18 countries of over 100 million people, many of them achieving substantial economic growth, and thus placing increased demand on the world’s resources.

The United States will be rising towards 400 million, and may still perhaps be the largest economy. The European Union will have a combined population of approximately 600 million, and may be surpassing the United States economically. Yet it will have neither the assets of military capacity nor the decisionmaking speed of a single sovereignty. China may possibly have overtaken either or both in sheer economic size, but not in respect of its people’s individual prosperity. India is forecast to be the largest in population, and quite possibly the fastest growing economically. All four will be in brisk competition for some kinds of resources, especially oil. Add to that the kind of domestic sources of social tension mentioned earlier, and we certainly must expect a turbulent world—a world that will need strong diplomatic institutions if it is not to spin lethally out of control. Moreover, the remnants of the jihadist movement, at least, will probably be lingering, and most of the world’s Muslims will live in South or Southeast Asia.